Building off the historical rental rate analysis we conducted for our June ’26 Market Rate Flash, I endeavoured to identify the relationship between asking rents and unit availability compared to total housing turnover.
I want to preface that I am in no way a data scientist and this analysis may be fraught with errors; nonetheless, I took a shot.
TL;DR
Is there a relationship between housing turnover and asking rents? Likely, maybe.
Is there a relationship between housing turnover and unit availability? Difficult to confirm.
For a slightly more detailed analysis, read below.
How We Approached It
Firstly, I will broadly refer to asking rents and unit availability as storage activity throughout this article.
Note: while I am no data scientist by any means, I want to clarify the metrics contained herein:
Correlation coefficient (correlation): a single number that measures the strength and direction of a linear relationship between two variables.
+1A perfect positive linear relationship. As one variable goes up, the other goes up by a fixed proportion.
−1A perfect negative linear relationship. As one variable goes up, the other goes down by a fixed proportion.
0No linear relationship between the variables.
To understand if a relationship exists, we took StorTrack’s monthly asking rent and advertised availability data for Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide and lined it up against ABS dwelling transfer volumes (established houses plus attached dwellings) from September 2023 to March 2026, comparing quarter-on-quarter movements in each. From there, we correlated the quarterly relationship between storage activity and housing turnover.
Asking Rent vs Housing Turnover
When looking at the correlation metrics on a same-quarter basis, it seemed that there is no immediately identifiable relationship between storage activity and housing turnover, except for Perth which showed a correlation coefficient of 0.59.
Same-quarter correlation: asking rent vs dwelling sales
Quarter-on-quarter change, December 2023 to March 2026
| City | All quarters | Excl. Mar-26 |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney | −0.20 | 0.04 |
| Melbourne | 0.15 | −0.20 |
| Brisbane | 0.04 | −0.10 |
| Perth | 0.59 | 0.47 |
| Adelaide | 0.26 | 0.35 |
However, if you shift the timing of the relationship and slide storage activity one to three months behind housing turnover, the correlation strengthens. Melbourne peaks at a two-month lag (0.64), Sydney at three months (0.52), Adelaide at one month (0.52), Brisbane at three months (0.33). Perth remains the exception, with its correlation barely changing across timing shifts.
The tables below show the correlation when the storage data is moved up to three months earlier or later than the housing sales data.
Asking rent vs dwelling sales: correlation by timing shift
All quarters, March 2024 to March 2026
← Storage moves first | Housing sales move first →
| City | −3m | −2m | −1m | 0 | +1m | +2m | +3m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney | −0.44 | −0.59 | −0.57 | −0.19 | 0.22 | 0.41 | 0.52 |
| Melbourne | −0.13 | −0.39 | −0.29 | 0.20 | 0.53 | 0.64 | 0.50 |
| Brisbane | 0.08 | −0.08 | −0.05 | 0.08 | 0.28 | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| Perth | 0.26 | 0.28 | 0.35 | 0.49 | 0.50 | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| Adelaide | −0.10 | −0.30 | −0.21 | 0.24 | 0.52 | 0.45 | 0.12 |
Excluding the preliminary March 2026 quarter
March 2024 to December 2025
← Storage moves first | Housing sales move first →
| City | −3m | −2m | −1m | 0 | +1m | +2m | +3m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney | −0.13 | −0.20 | −0.15 | 0.10 | 0.22 | 0.39 | 0.64 |
| Melbourne | −0.01 | −0.41 | −0.41 | −0.15 | 0.18 | 0.31 | 0.19 |
| Brisbane | 0.40 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.05 | 0.07 | −0.06 | 0.04 |
| Perth | 0.00 | −0.08 | −0.17 | −0.07 | 0.00 | −0.29 | −0.24 |
| Adelaide | −0.02 | −0.25 | −0.19 | 0.33 | 0.60 | 0.38 | −0.13 |
Strongest positive result for each city (not shown where every result is near zero or negative)
To summarise these findings: asking rents appear to respond positively to housing turnover about one to three months later.
Units Marketed / Available vs Housing Turnover
When looking at units advertised for rent on a quarter-on-quarter basis, the data is a little more ambiguous. Perth (0.65 to 0.87) and Adelaide (0.72 to 0.78) showed positive correlations, meaning units marketed appeared to fall when housing turnover declined. This is contrary to the theory that falling turnover brings more units onto the market. Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne sat around zero.
Same-quarter correlation: units marketed vs dwelling sales
Quarter-on-quarter change, December 2023 to March 2026
| City | All quarters | Excl. Mar-26 |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney | −0.12 | 0.09 |
| Melbourne | 0.07 | 0.27 |
| Brisbane | 0.13 | 0.29 |
| Perth | 0.65 | 0.87 |
| Adelaide | 0.72 | 0.78 |
New supply is the likeliest explanation. Our tracking of units marketed grew 30% to 80% in every city, including Adelaide where sales rose, suggesting new development or newly listed stores, rather than housing turnover, are driving availability.
Units marketed vs dwelling sales: correlation by timing shift
All quarters, March 2024 to March 2026
← Storage moves first | Housing sales move first →
| City | −3m | −2m | −1m | 0 | +1m | +2m | +3m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney | 0.38 | 0.20 | 0.00 | −0.19 | −0.12 | −0.31 | −0.05 |
| Melbourne | 0.04 | 0.09 | 0.08 | 0.12 | 0.08 | −0.08 | −0.01 |
| Brisbane | 0.48 | 0.45 | 0.33 | 0.13 | −0.01 | −0.09 | −0.23 |
| Perth | 0.00 | −0.07 | 0.14 | 0.57 | 0.57 | 0.22 | −0.23 |
| Adelaide | −0.17 | −0.05 | 0.50 | 0.72 | 0.66 | 0.46 | 0.07 |
Excluding the preliminary March 2026 quarter
March 2024 to December 2025
← Storage moves first | Housing sales move first →
| City | −3m | −2m | −1m | 0 | +1m | +2m | +3m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney | 0.40 | 0.41 | 0.33 | −0.04 | −0.20 | −0.72 | −0.68 |
| Melbourne | 0.18 | 0.35 | 0.42 | 0.33 | 0.04 | −0.35 | −0.50 |
| Brisbane | 0.45 | 0.62 | 0.56 | 0.30 | 0.02 | −0.30 | −0.38 |
| Perth | −0.10 | 0.16 | 0.62 | 0.82 | 0.67 | 0.13 | −0.54 |
| Adelaide | −0.11 | 0.09 | 0.68 | 0.78 | 0.67 | 0.21 | −0.35 |
Strongest positive result for each city (not shown where every result is near zero or negative)
To summarise these findings: there is too much noise in the data to define if a relationship exists between unit availability and housing turnover.
City by City
For each market, the first chart shows the quarter-on-quarter change in asking rent, units marketed and dwelling sales. The second shows the underlying quarterly figures. The shaded March 2026 quarter is preliminary ABS data.
Greater Sydney Rent follows ~3 months
Asking rent and sales show a slightly negative link in the same quarter (−0.20), which turns positive when rent is measured three months after sales (0.52). Units marketed are up 38% since September 2023, with no consistent link to sales.
Quarter-on-quarter change
Asking rent Units marketed Dwelling sales
Quarterly levels
Units marketed Dwelling sales Asking rent, $/unit/month (right)
Greater Melbourne Rent follows ~2 months
Asking rent correlates most strongly with sales two months later (0.64), the highest rent result in the study. Units marketed are up 29% since September 2023 but show no link to sales at any timing.
Quarter-on-quarter change
Asking rent Units marketed Dwelling sales
Quarterly levels
Units marketed Dwelling sales Asking rent, $/unit/month (right)
Greater Brisbane Weak Signal
The weakest rent result, peaking at 0.33 when rent is measured three months after sales. Units marketed are up 57% since September 2023, with a weak tendency to move ahead of sales (0.48 at three months earlier).
Quarter-on-quarter change
Asking rent Units marketed Dwelling sales
Quarterly levels
Units marketed Dwelling sales Asking rent, $/unit/month (right)
Greater Perth Moves in Step
Asking rent and sales move together in the same quarter (0.59), with no clear lag. Units marketed are up 60% since September 2023 and track sales closely (0.65, or 0.87 excluding the preliminary March 2026 quarter).
Quarter-on-quarter change
Asking rent Units marketed Dwelling sales
Quarterly levels
Units marketed Dwelling sales Asking rent, $/unit/month (right)
Greater Adelaide Rent follows ~1 month
Asking rent correlates most strongly with sales one month later (0.52). Units marketed are up 80% since September 2023 and move with sales in the same quarter (0.72), the strongest result using all quarters.
Quarter-on-quarter change
Asking rent Units marketed Dwelling sales
Quarterly levels
Units marketed Dwelling sales Asking rent, $/unit/month (right)
If anyone has other insights or another way to approach this analysis, shoot me a message!
Stefan Kulas, Managing Director, Self Storage Advisory Australia
Notes: Asking rent is the weighted average asking rent ($ per unit per month) and units marketed is the total number of units advertised for rent, both from StorTrack monthly data averaged to calendar quarters. Housing turnover is the number of established house and attached dwelling transfers (ABS 6432.0, Total Value of Dwellings). All correlations compare quarter-on-quarter changes. Same-quarter tables use December 2023 to March 2026 (10 quarters); timing-shift tables use March 2024 to March 2026 (9 quarters). As ABS data is quarterly only, monthly timing is approximated by moving a three-month storage window. The ABS flags the March 2026 quarter (*) as preliminary; it is materially below trend. With so few quarters, correlations below about 0.65 are not statistically meaningful and should be read as directional only.